Tesla’s expected delivery numbers for the first quarter of 2025 may fall short of Wall Street’s forecasts. With factors ranging from production delays to weak sales in key markets, what lies ahead for the electric vehicle giant?

• Tesla is expected to report its Q1 delivery numbers in a few days, and most analysts believe that the company will report a big decline from a year-ago quarter.
• We already know that Tesla’s sales in Europe and China have declined significantly, which can cause the company to report Q1 delivery below 300,000.
• Betting on autonomous driving would be too risky, with many third-party estimates showing Tesla significantly behind Waymo in key metrics like miles driven between disengagement.
• Tesla’s energy segment is doing quite well in revenue and margin growth, but even at 40% CAGR, it will take till the end of the decade to reach 50% revenue share.
• Tesla’s forward earnings and revenue estimates vary massively among bullish and bearish analysts, showing the significant risk associated with the stock at the current price.

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